The Economics of the US-Mexico Border - Desteia

The Economicsof the US-Mexico Border

The US-Mexico border is one of the most important trade regions in the world. We looked at data to better understand its dynamics.

Jose Luis Sabau
December 16, 2024
Macro

There are few regions in the world as important to international trade as the US-Mexico border. This, in great part, is a result of the booming relation between both nations. For years, Mexico has been one of the top trade partners to the U.S, and, most recently, has even surpassed China as the top exporter to the country. Naturally making the border between both countries into a crucial destination for their commerce.

Moreover, since the US is the largest economy in the world, its top trade partner is likely to receive billions in commerce alone. Not surprisingly, it is estimated that, in 2022 alone, some 8.3 million containers crossed the US-Mexico border via truck or train—that is equivalent to 22,762 containers crossing every single day. Containers carrying $779.3 bn worth of goods in that same year—a number that grew to $798.83 bn in 2023. So, put simply, the border is an extremely valuable economic region.

In this essay, we look more closely at the border and its relevance to trade. In particular, we look at what the border represents to Mexico economically and why it is so important to the economy of the country.

To start, it is worth putting the border into perspective. When we speak of the “border” we are actually talking about six different Mexican states: Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. These states are also a crucial part of the Mexican economy, due, in great part, to their strategic location along the border and their investment in manufacturing as a sector to better serve the U.S. market.

Mexican States Bordering with the U.S.

A map of Mexican states in the US-Mexico border

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In fact, given the prominence of commerce between Mexico and the U.S. these six states play a disproportionate role in the Mexican economy. In 2023, for instance, it was estimated that Mexico sent over $578 bn worth of goods abroad through exports. Of that sum, over $259 bn came from states in the US-Mexico border. As the figure below shows, this means that, in 2023, the border accounted for 44.92% of all exports in the country—and the vast majority of exports to the US, Mexico’s biggest trade partner as we’ve previously mentioned.

Share of Mexican Exports (2023)

A pie chart showing the split of Mexican exports depending on whether they are done by border states or not.

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These states, however, don’t all account for the same amount of exports. In fact, it is quite the contrary. As the figure below shows, Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, and Baja California are, by far, the largest exporters, accounting for 26.3%, 24.1%, and 21.6% of all exports from border states respectively. They are followed by Tamaulipas, with 11.3%, Coahuila, with 9.5%, and Sonora, the last amongst the states in the border, accounting for little above 7% of exports from the region.

Share of Border Exports by State (2023)

A pie chart showing the split of border exports in Mexico by state for the year 2023.

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Now, it is worth noting that this distribution is not set in stone. In fact, it changes year to year. In the graph below, we plotted monthly exports by value for all six states in the border. As the graph shows, there are two broad groups. Sonora and Coahuila at the bottom and the other four competing for the top position. In 2006, Tamaulipas was the top exporter, competing with Chihuahua and Baja California some years later. Then, Chihuahua grew into prominence, becoming the top exporter since 2016. Nuevo Leon, meanwhile, has grown from the fourth largest exporter to the second, even rivaling Chihuahua in recent months.

Monthly Exports from Mexican Border States (2006-2024)

A line chart showing the monthly exports for all Mexican states bordering the US between 2006 and 2024

(in USD)

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It is also worth looking at what these states are trading, as a means to understand their local economies and the dynamics of the border. In the figures below, we plotted the trade value of the top three export categories for each state. Baja California, Chihuahua, and Tamaulipas specialize in high-end focus on the car industry—although, Nuevo León's export economy is split among a great number of subcategories, although the automotive sector is, by far, the largest. Finally, Sonora stands out as the only state in the border where the top export is a commodity instead of a manufactured good. The state’s largest export category is actually copper, followed by electrical wires—not advanced in terms of manufacturing—and molybdenum. A testament to the state’s wealth in natural resources.

Top Export Categories for Baja California (2023)

(in millions of USD)

A bar chart showing the top export categories for the state of Baja California in 2023

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Top Export Categories for Sonora (2023)

(in millions of USD)

A bar chart showing the top export categories for the state of Sonora in 2023

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Top Export Categories for Chihuahua (2023)

(in millions of USD)

A bar chart showing the top export categories for the state of Chihuahua in 2023

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Top Export Categories for Coahuila (2023)

(in millions of USD)

A bar chart showing the top export categories for the state of Coahuila in 2023

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Top Export Categories for Nuevo Leon (2023)

(in millions of USD)

A bar chart showing the top export categories for the state of Nuevo Leon in 2023

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Top Export Categories for Tamaulipas (2023)

(in millions of USD)

A bar chart showing the top export categories for the state of Tamaulipas in 2023

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Sonora is also an outlier in one other regard: the places to which it exports. In the figure below, we plotted the share of exports at each border state based on their end destination. In all cases, the US is the top destination—which was to be expected given the sheer size of the US-Mexico trade relationship and their location. In five cases, the share of exports destined to the US is over 90%. The one exception is Sonora, where just 69.9% of exports head to the northern border. A large portion of the remaining 20.1% of exports goes to China—to be precise. 14.1% of exports. In fact, as of 2023, 85.5% of Sonora’s exports to China were in the form of copper. A surprising fact, considering the broad animosity between the US and China.

Destination of Exports from Mexican Border States (2023)

(in share of total exports)

A stacked bar chart showing the destination of exports from Mexican border states in 2023

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In summary, the US-Mexico border is a crucial artery to trade. But to think the border behaves homogeneously is a big mistake. In fact, each of the six states along the border have very different export patterns and interests. They differ heavily in what they export as well as in how much they do so. But, put together, they represent one of the most important trade corridors in the world.